Price forecasting of SGB and IRFC Bonds and comparing there returns

Overview

Project_Bonds

Project Title : Price forecasting of SGB and IRFC Bonds and comparing there returns.

Introduction of the Project

The 2008-09 global financial crises and 2020-21 pandemic have shown us the volatility of the market. Many people have are finding a way to invest money to secure their future. People are trying to find a secure investment with minimum financial risks with higher returns. This is also a fact that with investment their also comes with risks. There is a saying in the world of investment “Do not put all your egg in one basket”. We need to diverse portfolio in the area of investment, so that if one investment does not give you enough yields due to fluctuations in the market rates then other will give you higher yield. Bonds are one such investment people prefer the most. The Bonds we have selected are two government bonds – SGB (Sovereign Gold Bond) and IRFC (Indian Railway Finance Corporation). The objective was to forecast the prices of SGB and IRFC bond and calculate the returns. Compare the returns and recommend the client which one to pick based on the input that is number of years to forecast.

Technologies Used

  • Python – ML model (auto_arima (for grid search to find p,q,d values), ARIMA(for forecasting values))
  • SQLite – Database
  • Flask – Front End for deployment
  • Python Libraries – numpy, pandas, Statsmodels, re, nsepy, matplotlib
  • HTML/CSS

General info

This project is simple Forecasting model. Not taxes were put into use when calculating returns. IRFC Bond is a tax free bond but SGB we need to pay taxes if we try to sell it before the maturity period is over. Inflation rate and global pandemic situation is a rare phenonmenon and it is beyond anyone's control. It has been taken into business restriction.
Data has been collected from National Stock exchange of India The two bonds selected from NSE was -

Requirement file (contains libraries and their versions)

Libraries Used

Project Architecture

alt text

Explaining Project Architecture

Live data extraction

The data collected from NSE website (historical data) and the library which is used to collect live daily data from the website is nsepy. The data is then goes to python, two things happens in python. First, out of all the attributes, we only take "Close Price" and then the daily is then converted into monthly data. We use mean to calculate the the monthly average.

Data storage in sqlite

We chose SQLite because it is very easy to use and one does not need the knowledge of sql to observe the data. the database is created locally and and is being updated when the user usses the application. the user can easliy take the database and see the data in SQL viewr online available.

Data is then used by the model

When data is then called back by the python. the python then perform differencing method to remove the trend and seasonality from the data so that our data can be stable. For successful forecasting, it is necessary to keepp the time series data to be stationary.

p,d,q Hyperparameters

We use auto_arima function to calculate p,d,q value. We use re(regex) to store the summary of auto_arima in string format. then use "re.findall()" funtion to collect the value of p,d,q values. The downpoint of using this auto_arima function is that it runs two times when the programes gets executed. It calculate the hyperparameter values for both SGB and IRFC data.

ARIMA

This part is where the data is taken and then fit & predict.
This is for 12 months. Actual Data vs Predicted Data

Model Evaluation

SGB

The RMSE: 93.27 Rs. & The MAPE: 0.0185

IRFC

The RMSE: 21.62 Rs. & The MAPE: 0.0139
(Pretty Good)

Forecasting (12 Months)

Forecasted Data (12 Months)

Returns

This is the part where both SGB and IRFC foecasted data is being collected and based on that returns are calculated. If the SGB returns is higher than IRFC bonds then it will tell the customer about the amount of return for a specific time period.

User Input

The user will be given 3 options as Input. The user will select a specific time period from a drop down list. The options are -

  1. 4 Months (Quaterly)
  2. 6 Months (Half yearly)
  3. 12 Months (Anually)
    This options are time pperiod to forecast. If the user press 6 then the output page will show "6" forecasted values with a range Upper Price, Forecasted Price, Lower Price for both the bonds side by side. Below there will be a text where the returns will be diplayed if the user decides to sell the bonds then.
    12 Months Forecasted Prices - forecasted_prices

Python_code

correlation matrix fig=plt.gcf() fig.set_size_inches(10,8) plt.show() heatmap(gold) heatmap(bond) ############################### Live data to Feature engineering ################################################3 ##Taking close price as our univariate variable ##For gold gold=pd.DataFrame(gold["Close"]) gold["date"]=gold.index gold["date"]=gold['date'].astype(str) gold[["year", "month", "day"]] = gold["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True) gold['Dates'] = gold['month'].str.cat(gold['year'], sep ="-") gold.Dates=pd.to_datetime(gold.Dates) gold.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) col_sgb=pd.DataFrame(gold.groupby(gold.index).Close.mean()) ##For bond bond=pd.DataFrame(bond["Close"]) bond["date"]=bond.index bond["date"]=bond['date'].astype(str) bond[["year", "month", "day"]] = bond["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True) bond['Dates'] = bond['month'].str.cat(bond['year'], sep ="-") bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(bond.Dates) bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) col_bond=pd.DataFrame(bond.groupby(bond.index).Close.mean()) col_sgb.columns = ["Avg_price"] col_bond.columns = ["Avg_price"] col_bond.isnull().sum() col_sgb.isnull().sum() ############################ SQL connection with monthly data ################################################ ############################### SQL database is created ################################################3 # Connect to the database from sqlalchemy import create_engine engine_sgb = create_engine('sqlite:///gold_database.db', echo=False) col_sgb.to_sql('SGB', con=engine_sgb,if_exists='replace') df_sgb = pd.read_sql('select * from SGB',engine_sgb ) df_sgb.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_sgb.Dates) df_sgb.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) engine_irfcb = create_engine('sqlite:///irfcb_database.db', echo=False) col_bond.to_sql('IRFCB', con=engine_irfcb,if_exists='replace') df_bond = pd.read_sql('select * from IRFCB',engine_irfcb) df_bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_bond.Dates) df_bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) ############################### SQL data to python ################################################3 # Plotting def plotting_bond(y): fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(20, 6)) ax.plot(y,marker='.', linestyle='-', linewidth=0.5, label='Monthly Average') ax.plot(y.resample('Y').mean(),marker='o', markersize=8, linestyle='-', label='Yearly Mean Resample') ax.set_ylabel('Avg_price') ax.legend(); plotting_bond(df_sgb) plotting_bond(df_bond) #univariate analysis of Average Price df_sgb.hist(bins = 50) df_bond.hist(bins = 50) # check Stationary and adf test def test_stationarity(timeseries): #Determing rolling statistics rolmean = timeseries.rolling(12).mean() rolstd = timeseries.rolling(12).std() #Plot rolling statistics: fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(16, 4)) ax.plot(timeseries, label = "Original Price") ax.plot(rolmean, label='rolling mean'); ax.plot(rolstd, label='rolling std'); plt.legend(loc='best') plt.title('Rolling Mean and Standard Deviation - Removed Trend and Seasonality') plt.show(block=False) print("Results of dickey fuller test") adft = adfuller(timeseries,autolag='AIC') print('Test statistic = {:.3f}'.format(adft[0])) print('P-value = {:.3f}'.format(adft[1])) print('Critical values :') for k, v in adft[4].items(): print('\t{}: {} - The data is {} stationary with {}% confidence'.format(k, v, 'not' if v y: a = print("The retrun of SGB is {a} and the return of IRFC Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t)) else: a = print("The return of IRFC Bond is{a} and the return of SGB Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t)) return a output_(gain_sgb,gain_bond, n) ">
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
from pylab import rcParams
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose
from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
from pmdarima.arima import auto_arima
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
import math
import re
from datetime import date
import nsepy 
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
####################################          Live data extraction              ###################################################
##Extracting data from nsepy package
da=date.today()
gold= pd.DataFrame(nsepy.get_history(symbol="SGBAUG24",series="GB", start=date(2016,9,1), end=da))
bond= pd.DataFrame(nsepy.get_history(symbol="IRFC",series="N2", start=date(2012,1,1), end=da))

#############################                 Live data  extraction end                  ###############################################

# Heatmap - to check collinearity
def heatmap(x):
    plt.figure(figsize=(16,16))
    sns.heatmap(x.corr(),annot=True,cmap='Blues',linewidths=0.2) #data.corr()-->correlation matrix
    fig=plt.gcf()
    fig.set_size_inches(10,8)
    plt.show()
heatmap(gold)
heatmap(bond)
###############################                Live data to Feature engineering            ################################################3             

##Taking close price as our univariate variable
##For gold
gold=pd.DataFrame(gold["Close"])
gold["date"]=gold.index
gold["date"]=gold['date'].astype(str)
gold[["year", "month", "day"]] = gold["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True)
gold['Dates'] = gold['month'].str.cat(gold['year'], sep ="-")
gold.Dates=pd.to_datetime(gold.Dates)
gold.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
col_sgb=pd.DataFrame(gold.groupby(gold.index).Close.mean())

##For bond
bond=pd.DataFrame(bond["Close"])
bond["date"]=bond.index
bond["date"]=bond['date'].astype(str)
bond[["year", "month", "day"]] = bond["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True)
bond['Dates'] = bond['month'].str.cat(bond['year'], sep ="-")
bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(bond.Dates)
bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
col_bond=pd.DataFrame(bond.groupby(bond.index).Close.mean())

col_sgb.columns = ["Avg_price"]
col_bond.columns = ["Avg_price"]

col_bond.isnull().sum()
col_sgb.isnull().sum()

############################                  SQL connection with monthly data           ################################################ 
###############################                SQL database is created                  ################################################3             

# Connect to the database
from sqlalchemy import create_engine
engine_sgb = create_engine('sqlite:///gold_database.db', echo=False)
col_sgb.to_sql('SGB', con=engine_sgb,if_exists='replace')
df_sgb = pd.read_sql('select * from SGB',engine_sgb )

df_sgb.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_sgb.Dates)
df_sgb.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)


engine_irfcb = create_engine('sqlite:///irfcb_database.db', echo=False)
col_bond.to_sql('IRFCB', con=engine_irfcb,if_exists='replace')
df_bond = pd.read_sql('select * from IRFCB',engine_irfcb)

df_bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_bond.Dates)
df_bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
###############################                SQL data to python                 ################################################3             



# Plotting
def plotting_bond(y):
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(20, 6))
    ax.plot(y,marker='.', linestyle='-', linewidth=0.5, label='Monthly Average')
    ax.plot(y.resample('Y').mean(),marker='o', markersize=8, linestyle='-', label='Yearly Mean Resample')
    ax.set_ylabel('Avg_price')
    ax.legend();
plotting_bond(df_sgb)
plotting_bond(df_bond)

#univariate analysis of Average Price
df_sgb.hist(bins = 50)
df_bond.hist(bins = 50)

# check Stationary and adf test
def test_stationarity(timeseries):
    #Determing rolling statistics
    rolmean = timeseries.rolling(12).mean()
    rolstd = timeseries.rolling(12).std()
    #Plot rolling statistics:
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(16, 4))
    ax.plot(timeseries, label = "Original Price")
    ax.plot(rolmean, label='rolling mean');
    ax.plot(rolstd, label='rolling std');
    plt.legend(loc='best')
    plt.title('Rolling Mean and Standard Deviation - Removed Trend and Seasonality')
    plt.show(block=False)
    
    print("Results of dickey fuller test")
    adft = adfuller(timeseries,autolag='AIC')
    print('Test statistic = {:.3f}'.format(adft[0]))
    print('P-value = {:.3f}'.format(adft[1]))
    print('Critical values :')
    for k, v in adft[4].items():
        print('\t{}: {} - The data is {} stationary with {}% confidence'.format(k, v, 'not' if v
    
      y:
        a = print("The retrun of SGB is {a} and the return of IRFC Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t))
    else:
        a = print("The return of IRFC Bond is{a} and the return of SGB Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t))
    return a
output_(gain_sgb,gain_bond, n)

    

Home Page (Used HTML and CSS)

home

Predict Page

predict

Output Page

output

Project Completed --

Owner
Tishya S
Data Science aspirant
Tishya S
Tools for Optuna, MLflow and the integration of both.

HPOflow - Sphinx DOC Tools for Optuna, MLflow and the integration of both. Detailed documentation with examples can be found here: Sphinx DOC Table of

Telekom Open Source Software 17 Nov 20, 2022
Primitives for machine learning and data science.

An Open Source Project from the Data to AI Lab, at MIT MLPrimitives Pipelines and primitives for machine learning and data science. Documentation: htt

MLBazaar 65 Dec 29, 2022
A high performance and generic framework for distributed DNN training

BytePS BytePS is a high performance and general distributed training framework. It supports TensorFlow, Keras, PyTorch, and MXNet, and can run on eith

Bytedance Inc. 3.3k Dec 28, 2022
Deploy AutoML as a service using Flask

AutoML Service Deploy automated machine learning (AutoML) as a service using Flask, for both pipeline training and pipeline serving. The framework imp

Chris Rawles 221 Nov 04, 2022
Lingtrain Alignment Studio is an ML based app for texts alignment on different languages.

Lingtrain Alignment Studio Intro Lingtrain Alignment Studio is the ML based app for accurate texts alignment on different languages. Extracts parallel

Sergei Averkiev 186 Jan 03, 2023
Python/Sage Tool for deriving Scattering Matrices for WDF R-Adaptors

R-Solver A Python tools for deriving R-Type adaptors for Wave Digital Filters. This code is not quite production-ready. If you are interested in contr

8 Sep 19, 2022
YouTube Spam Detection with python

YouTube Spam Detection This code deletes spam comment on youtube videos based on two characteristics (currently) If the author of the comment has a se

MohamadReza Taalebi 5 Sep 27, 2022
Python bindings for MPI

MPI for Python Overview Welcome to MPI for Python. This package provides Python bindings for the Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard. It is imple

MPI for Python 604 Dec 29, 2022
inding a method to objectively quantify skill versus chance in games, using reinforcement learning

Skill-vs-chance-games-analysis - Finding a method to objectively quantify skill versus chance in games, using reinforcement learning

Marcus Chiam 4 Nov 19, 2022
AP1 Transcription Factor Binding Site Prediction

A machine learning project that predicted binding sites of AP1 transcription factor, using ChIP-Seq data and local DNA shape information.

1 Jan 21, 2022
Exemplary lightweight and ready-to-deploy machine learning project

Exemplary lightweight and ready-to-deploy machine learning project

snapADDY GmbH 6 Dec 20, 2022
Module is created to build a spam filter using Python and the multinomial Naive Bayes algorithm.

Naive-Bayes Spam Classificator Module is created to build a spam filter using Python and the multinomial Naive Bayes algorithm. Main goal is to code a

Viktoria Maksymiuk 1 Jun 27, 2022
Machine Learning Algorithms ( Desion Tree, XG Boost, Random Forest )

implementation of machine learning Algorithms such as decision tree and random forest and xgboost on darasets then compare results for each and implement ant colony and genetic algorithms on tsp map,

Mohamadreza Rezaei 1 Jan 19, 2022
Machine-learning-dell - Repositório com as atividades desenvolvidas no curso de Machine Learning

📚 Descrição Neste curso da Dell aprofundamos nossos conhecimentos em Machine Learning. 🖥️ Aulas (Em curso) 1.1 - Python aplicado a Data Science 1.2

Claudia dos Anjos 1 Jan 05, 2022
This handbook accompanies the course: Machine Learning with Hung-Yi Lee

This handbook accompanies the course: Machine Learning with Hung-Yi Lee

RenChu Wang 472 Dec 31, 2022
Painless Machine Learning for python based on scikit-learn

PlainML Painless Machine Learning Library for python based on scikit-learn. Install pip install plainml Example from plainml import KnnModel, load_ir

1 Aug 06, 2022
Tutorial for Decision Threshold In Machine Learning.

Decision-Threshold-ML Tutorial for improve skills: 'Decision Threshold In Machine Learning' (from GeeksforGeeks) by Marcus Mariano For more informatio

0 Jan 20, 2022
Apache Spark & Python (pySpark) tutorials for Big Data Analysis and Machine Learning as IPython / Jupyter notebooks

Spark Python Notebooks This is a collection of IPython notebook/Jupyter notebooks intended to train the reader on different Apache Spark concepts, fro

Jose A Dianes 1.5k Jan 02, 2023
High performance implementation of Extreme Learning Machines (fast randomized neural networks).

High Performance toolbox for Extreme Learning Machines. Extreme learning machines (ELM) are a particular kind of Artificial Neural Networks, which sol

Anton Akusok 174 Dec 07, 2022