Price forecasting of SGB and IRFC Bonds and comparing there returns

Overview

Project_Bonds

Project Title : Price forecasting of SGB and IRFC Bonds and comparing there returns.

Introduction of the Project

The 2008-09 global financial crises and 2020-21 pandemic have shown us the volatility of the market. Many people have are finding a way to invest money to secure their future. People are trying to find a secure investment with minimum financial risks with higher returns. This is also a fact that with investment their also comes with risks. There is a saying in the world of investment “Do not put all your egg in one basket”. We need to diverse portfolio in the area of investment, so that if one investment does not give you enough yields due to fluctuations in the market rates then other will give you higher yield. Bonds are one such investment people prefer the most. The Bonds we have selected are two government bonds – SGB (Sovereign Gold Bond) and IRFC (Indian Railway Finance Corporation). The objective was to forecast the prices of SGB and IRFC bond and calculate the returns. Compare the returns and recommend the client which one to pick based on the input that is number of years to forecast.

Technologies Used

  • Python – ML model (auto_arima (for grid search to find p,q,d values), ARIMA(for forecasting values))
  • SQLite – Database
  • Flask – Front End for deployment
  • Python Libraries – numpy, pandas, Statsmodels, re, nsepy, matplotlib
  • HTML/CSS

General info

This project is simple Forecasting model. Not taxes were put into use when calculating returns. IRFC Bond is a tax free bond but SGB we need to pay taxes if we try to sell it before the maturity period is over. Inflation rate and global pandemic situation is a rare phenonmenon and it is beyond anyone's control. It has been taken into business restriction.
Data has been collected from National Stock exchange of India The two bonds selected from NSE was -

Requirement file (contains libraries and their versions)

Libraries Used

Project Architecture

alt text

Explaining Project Architecture

Live data extraction

The data collected from NSE website (historical data) and the library which is used to collect live daily data from the website is nsepy. The data is then goes to python, two things happens in python. First, out of all the attributes, we only take "Close Price" and then the daily is then converted into monthly data. We use mean to calculate the the monthly average.

Data storage in sqlite

We chose SQLite because it is very easy to use and one does not need the knowledge of sql to observe the data. the database is created locally and and is being updated when the user usses the application. the user can easliy take the database and see the data in SQL viewr online available.

Data is then used by the model

When data is then called back by the python. the python then perform differencing method to remove the trend and seasonality from the data so that our data can be stable. For successful forecasting, it is necessary to keepp the time series data to be stationary.

p,d,q Hyperparameters

We use auto_arima function to calculate p,d,q value. We use re(regex) to store the summary of auto_arima in string format. then use "re.findall()" funtion to collect the value of p,d,q values. The downpoint of using this auto_arima function is that it runs two times when the programes gets executed. It calculate the hyperparameter values for both SGB and IRFC data.

ARIMA

This part is where the data is taken and then fit & predict.
This is for 12 months. Actual Data vs Predicted Data

Model Evaluation

SGB

The RMSE: 93.27 Rs. & The MAPE: 0.0185

IRFC

The RMSE: 21.62 Rs. & The MAPE: 0.0139
(Pretty Good)

Forecasting (12 Months)

Forecasted Data (12 Months)

Returns

This is the part where both SGB and IRFC foecasted data is being collected and based on that returns are calculated. If the SGB returns is higher than IRFC bonds then it will tell the customer about the amount of return for a specific time period.

User Input

The user will be given 3 options as Input. The user will select a specific time period from a drop down list. The options are -

  1. 4 Months (Quaterly)
  2. 6 Months (Half yearly)
  3. 12 Months (Anually)
    This options are time pperiod to forecast. If the user press 6 then the output page will show "6" forecasted values with a range Upper Price, Forecasted Price, Lower Price for both the bonds side by side. Below there will be a text where the returns will be diplayed if the user decides to sell the bonds then.
    12 Months Forecasted Prices - forecasted_prices

Python_code

correlation matrix fig=plt.gcf() fig.set_size_inches(10,8) plt.show() heatmap(gold) heatmap(bond) ############################### Live data to Feature engineering ################################################3 ##Taking close price as our univariate variable ##For gold gold=pd.DataFrame(gold["Close"]) gold["date"]=gold.index gold["date"]=gold['date'].astype(str) gold[["year", "month", "day"]] = gold["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True) gold['Dates'] = gold['month'].str.cat(gold['year'], sep ="-") gold.Dates=pd.to_datetime(gold.Dates) gold.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) col_sgb=pd.DataFrame(gold.groupby(gold.index).Close.mean()) ##For bond bond=pd.DataFrame(bond["Close"]) bond["date"]=bond.index bond["date"]=bond['date'].astype(str) bond[["year", "month", "day"]] = bond["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True) bond['Dates'] = bond['month'].str.cat(bond['year'], sep ="-") bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(bond.Dates) bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) col_bond=pd.DataFrame(bond.groupby(bond.index).Close.mean()) col_sgb.columns = ["Avg_price"] col_bond.columns = ["Avg_price"] col_bond.isnull().sum() col_sgb.isnull().sum() ############################ SQL connection with monthly data ################################################ ############################### SQL database is created ################################################3 # Connect to the database from sqlalchemy import create_engine engine_sgb = create_engine('sqlite:///gold_database.db', echo=False) col_sgb.to_sql('SGB', con=engine_sgb,if_exists='replace') df_sgb = pd.read_sql('select * from SGB',engine_sgb ) df_sgb.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_sgb.Dates) df_sgb.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) engine_irfcb = create_engine('sqlite:///irfcb_database.db', echo=False) col_bond.to_sql('IRFCB', con=engine_irfcb,if_exists='replace') df_bond = pd.read_sql('select * from IRFCB',engine_irfcb) df_bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_bond.Dates) df_bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True) ############################### SQL data to python ################################################3 # Plotting def plotting_bond(y): fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(20, 6)) ax.plot(y,marker='.', linestyle='-', linewidth=0.5, label='Monthly Average') ax.plot(y.resample('Y').mean(),marker='o', markersize=8, linestyle='-', label='Yearly Mean Resample') ax.set_ylabel('Avg_price') ax.legend(); plotting_bond(df_sgb) plotting_bond(df_bond) #univariate analysis of Average Price df_sgb.hist(bins = 50) df_bond.hist(bins = 50) # check Stationary and adf test def test_stationarity(timeseries): #Determing rolling statistics rolmean = timeseries.rolling(12).mean() rolstd = timeseries.rolling(12).std() #Plot rolling statistics: fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(16, 4)) ax.plot(timeseries, label = "Original Price") ax.plot(rolmean, label='rolling mean'); ax.plot(rolstd, label='rolling std'); plt.legend(loc='best') plt.title('Rolling Mean and Standard Deviation - Removed Trend and Seasonality') plt.show(block=False) print("Results of dickey fuller test") adft = adfuller(timeseries,autolag='AIC') print('Test statistic = {:.3f}'.format(adft[0])) print('P-value = {:.3f}'.format(adft[1])) print('Critical values :') for k, v in adft[4].items(): print('\t{}: {} - The data is {} stationary with {}% confidence'.format(k, v, 'not' if v y: a = print("The retrun of SGB is {a} and the return of IRFC Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t)) else: a = print("The return of IRFC Bond is{a} and the return of SGB Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t)) return a output_(gain_sgb,gain_bond, n) ">
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
from pylab import rcParams
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose
from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA
from pmdarima.arima import auto_arima
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
import math
import re
from datetime import date
import nsepy 
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
####################################          Live data extraction              ###################################################
##Extracting data from nsepy package
da=date.today()
gold= pd.DataFrame(nsepy.get_history(symbol="SGBAUG24",series="GB", start=date(2016,9,1), end=da))
bond= pd.DataFrame(nsepy.get_history(symbol="IRFC",series="N2", start=date(2012,1,1), end=da))

#############################                 Live data  extraction end                  ###############################################

# Heatmap - to check collinearity
def heatmap(x):
    plt.figure(figsize=(16,16))
    sns.heatmap(x.corr(),annot=True,cmap='Blues',linewidths=0.2) #data.corr()-->correlation matrix
    fig=plt.gcf()
    fig.set_size_inches(10,8)
    plt.show()
heatmap(gold)
heatmap(bond)
###############################                Live data to Feature engineering            ################################################3             

##Taking close price as our univariate variable
##For gold
gold=pd.DataFrame(gold["Close"])
gold["date"]=gold.index
gold["date"]=gold['date'].astype(str)
gold[["year", "month", "day"]] = gold["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True)
gold['Dates'] = gold['month'].str.cat(gold['year'], sep ="-")
gold.Dates=pd.to_datetime(gold.Dates)
gold.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
col_sgb=pd.DataFrame(gold.groupby(gold.index).Close.mean())

##For bond
bond=pd.DataFrame(bond["Close"])
bond["date"]=bond.index
bond["date"]=bond['date'].astype(str)
bond[["year", "month", "day"]] = bond["date"].str.split(pat="-", expand=True)
bond['Dates'] = bond['month'].str.cat(bond['year'], sep ="-")
bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(bond.Dates)
bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
col_bond=pd.DataFrame(bond.groupby(bond.index).Close.mean())

col_sgb.columns = ["Avg_price"]
col_bond.columns = ["Avg_price"]

col_bond.isnull().sum()
col_sgb.isnull().sum()

############################                  SQL connection with monthly data           ################################################ 
###############################                SQL database is created                  ################################################3             

# Connect to the database
from sqlalchemy import create_engine
engine_sgb = create_engine('sqlite:///gold_database.db', echo=False)
col_sgb.to_sql('SGB', con=engine_sgb,if_exists='replace')
df_sgb = pd.read_sql('select * from SGB',engine_sgb )

df_sgb.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_sgb.Dates)
df_sgb.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)


engine_irfcb = create_engine('sqlite:///irfcb_database.db', echo=False)
col_bond.to_sql('IRFCB', con=engine_irfcb,if_exists='replace')
df_bond = pd.read_sql('select * from IRFCB',engine_irfcb)

df_bond.Dates=pd.to_datetime(df_bond.Dates)
df_bond.set_index('Dates',inplace=True)
###############################                SQL data to python                 ################################################3             



# Plotting
def plotting_bond(y):
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(20, 6))
    ax.plot(y,marker='.', linestyle='-', linewidth=0.5, label='Monthly Average')
    ax.plot(y.resample('Y').mean(),marker='o', markersize=8, linestyle='-', label='Yearly Mean Resample')
    ax.set_ylabel('Avg_price')
    ax.legend();
plotting_bond(df_sgb)
plotting_bond(df_bond)

#univariate analysis of Average Price
df_sgb.hist(bins = 50)
df_bond.hist(bins = 50)

# check Stationary and adf test
def test_stationarity(timeseries):
    #Determing rolling statistics
    rolmean = timeseries.rolling(12).mean()
    rolstd = timeseries.rolling(12).std()
    #Plot rolling statistics:
    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(16, 4))
    ax.plot(timeseries, label = "Original Price")
    ax.plot(rolmean, label='rolling mean');
    ax.plot(rolstd, label='rolling std');
    plt.legend(loc='best')
    plt.title('Rolling Mean and Standard Deviation - Removed Trend and Seasonality')
    plt.show(block=False)
    
    print("Results of dickey fuller test")
    adft = adfuller(timeseries,autolag='AIC')
    print('Test statistic = {:.3f}'.format(adft[0]))
    print('P-value = {:.3f}'.format(adft[1]))
    print('Critical values :')
    for k, v in adft[4].items():
        print('\t{}: {} - The data is {} stationary with {}% confidence'.format(k, v, 'not' if v
    
      y:
        a = print("The retrun of SGB is {a} and the return of IRFC Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t))
    else:
        a = print("The return of IRFC Bond is{a} and the return of SGB Bond is {b} after {c} months".format(a=x,b=y,c=t))
    return a
output_(gain_sgb,gain_bond, n)

    

Home Page (Used HTML and CSS)

home

Predict Page

predict

Output Page

output

Project Completed --

Owner
Tishya S
Data Science aspirant
Tishya S
A Python library for detecting patterns and anomalies in massive datasets using the Matrix Profile

matrixprofile-ts matrixprofile-ts is a Python 2 and 3 library for evaluating time series data using the Matrix Profile algorithms developed by the Keo

Target 696 Dec 26, 2022
XAI - An eXplainability toolbox for machine learning

XAI - An eXplainability toolbox for machine learning XAI is a Machine Learning library that is designed with AI explainability in its core. XAI contai

The Institute for Ethical Machine Learning 875 Dec 27, 2022
A Microsoft Azure Web App project named Covid 19 Predictor using Machine learning Model

A Microsoft Azure Web App project named Covid 19 Predictor using Machine learning Model (Random Forest Classifier Model ) that helps the user to identify whether someone is showing positive Covid sym

Priyansh Sharma 2 Oct 06, 2022
Probabilistic programming framework that facilitates objective model selection for time-varying parameter models.

Time series analysis today is an important cornerstone of quantitative science in many disciplines, including natural and life sciences as well as eco

Christoph Mark 129 Dec 24, 2022
Penguins species predictor app is used to classify penguins species created using python's scikit-learn, fastapi, numpy and joblib packages.

Penguins Classification App Penguins species predictor app is used to classify penguins species using their island, sex, bill length (mm), bill depth

Siva Prakash 3 Apr 05, 2022
Regularization and Feature Selection in Least Squares Temporal Difference Learning

Regularization and Feature Selection in Least Squares Temporal Difference Learning Description This is Python implementations of Least Angle Regressio

Mina Parham 0 Jan 18, 2022
BigDL: Distributed Deep Learning Framework for Apache Spark

BigDL: Distributed Deep Learning on Apache Spark What is BigDL? BigDL is a distributed deep learning library for Apache Spark; with BigDL, users can w

4.1k Jan 09, 2023
A visual dataflow programming language for sklearn

Persimmon What is it? Persimmon is a visual dataflow language for creating sklearn pipelines. It represents functions as blocks, inputs and outputs ar

Álvaro Bermejo 194 Jan 04, 2023
Causal Inference and Machine Learning in Practice with EconML and CausalML: Industrial Use Cases at Microsoft, TripAdvisor, Uber

Causal Inference and Machine Learning in Practice with EconML and CausalML: Industrial Use Cases at Microsoft, TripAdvisor, Uber

EconML/CausalML KDD 2021 Tutorial 124 Dec 28, 2022
jaxfg - Factor graph-based nonlinear optimization library for JAX.

Factor graphs + nonlinear optimization in JAX

Brent Yi 134 Dec 21, 2022
Short PhD seminar on Machine Learning Security (Adversarial Machine Learning)

Short PhD seminar on Machine Learning Security (Adversarial Machine Learning)

141 Dec 27, 2022
Implementation of K-Nearest Neighbors Algorithm Using PySpark

KNN With Spark Implementation of KNN using PySpark. The KNN was used on two separate datasets (https://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/iris and https:

Zachary Petroff 4 Dec 30, 2022
Fourier-Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models

fourier-bayesian-sv-estimation Fourier-Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models Code used to run the numerical examples of "Bayesian Approa

15 Jun 20, 2022
A Python package for time series classification

pyts: a Python package for time series classification pyts is a Python package for time series classification. It aims to make time series classificat

Johann Faouzi 1.4k Jan 01, 2023
A comprehensive set of fairness metrics for datasets and machine learning models, explanations for these metrics, and algorithms to mitigate bias in datasets and models.

AI Fairness 360 (AIF360) The AI Fairness 360 toolkit is an extensible open-source library containg techniques developed by the research community to h

1.9k Jan 06, 2023
Forecast dynamically at scale with this unique package. pip install scalecast

🌄 Scalecast: Dynamic Forecasting at Scale About This package uses a scaleable forecasting approach in Python with common scikit-learn and statsmodels

Michael Keith 158 Jan 03, 2023
A linear regression model for house price prediction

Linear_Regression_Model A linear regression model for house price prediction. This code is using these packages, so please make sure your have install

ShawnWang 1 Nov 29, 2021
Winning solution for the Galaxy Challenge on Kaggle

Winning solution for the Galaxy Challenge on Kaggle

Sander Dieleman 483 Jan 02, 2023
A game theoretic approach to explain the output of any machine learning model.

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is a game theoretic approach to explain the output of any machine learning model. It connects optimal credit allo

Scott Lundberg 18.2k Jan 02, 2023
AutoOED: Automated Optimal Experiment Design Platform

AutoOED is an optimal experiment design platform powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions. Our platform solves multi-objective optimization problems an

Yunsheng Tian 107 Jan 03, 2023